{"id":418994,"date":"2026-04-09T08:02:42","date_gmt":"2026-04-09T11:02:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=418994"},"modified":"2026-04-08T19:21:20","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T22:21:20","slug":"nao-sera-surpresa-uma-vitoria-de-raquel-lyra-no-1o-turno-diz-cientista-politico-ao-avaliar-pesquisas","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=418994","title":{"rendered":"&#8220;N\u00e3o ser\u00e1 surpresa uma vit\u00f3ria de Raquel Lyra no 1\u00ba turno&#8221;, diz CIENTISTA POL\u00cdTICO ao avaliar pesquisas"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"post-body-1517191600023382057\" class=\"post-body entry-content\">\n<p>Os empates registrado na pesquisa Simplex divulgada nesta quarta-feira (08) para o Governo de Pernambuco refor\u00e7a o cen\u00e1rio de disputa equilibrada entre a governadora Raquel Lyra (PSD) e o ex-prefeito do Recife Jo\u00e3o Campos (PSB).<\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Apesar disso, a elei\u00e7\u00e3o pode ser definida ainda no primeiro turno, segundo avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do cientista pol\u00edtico Adriano Oliveira. \u201cN\u00e3o ser\u00e1 surpresa se a governadora Raquel Lyra vier ganhar no primeiro turno\u201d, afirmou.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">A an\u00e1lise considera principalmente os dados do Instituto Simplex, que mostram empate t\u00e9cnico no cen\u00e1rio estimulado: Raquel Lyra aparece com 42,6% das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto, enquanto Jo\u00e3o Campos tem 42,3%. A margem de erro \u00e9 de 3 pontos percentuais.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">No cen\u00e1rio com menos candidatos, a governadora soma 44,8% contra 43,2% do advers\u00e1rio. J\u00e1 no cen\u00e1rio espont\u00e2neo, ela lidera com 33,8%, frente a 28,5% de Jo\u00e3o Campos, mas com elevado \u00edndice de indecisos (32,7%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">O levantamento ouviu 1.067 eleitores em 139 munic\u00edpios pernambucanos, por telefone, entre os dias 3 e 7 de abril. O n\u00edvel de confian\u00e7a \u00e9 de 95% e o registro no Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) \u00e9 PE-04864\/2026.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Segundo o Adriano Oliveira, os dados confirmam uma tend\u00eancia j\u00e1 observada em pesquisas qualitativas: o avan\u00e7o da governadora na percep\u00e7\u00e3o do eleitorado.\u201cOs eleitores passaram a identificar a governadora como trabalhadora, dedicada. Esses sentimentos tendem a virar inten\u00e7\u00e3o de voto.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Ele destaca que a aprova\u00e7\u00e3o da gest\u00e3o \u00e9 determinante para o cen\u00e1rio. \u201cGovernadores bem avaliados tendem a ser eleitos. Se a aprova\u00e7\u00e3o estiver entre 60% e 65%, ela \u00e9 uma candidata pronta para vencer.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><strong><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Pesquisas mostram cen\u00e1rios distintos<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Outro levantamento recente, do instituto Verit\u00e1, divulgado no \u00faltimo domingo (5), tamb\u00e9m aponta equil\u00edbrio, mas com maior fragmenta\u00e7\u00e3o. Nele, Raquel Lyra e Jo\u00e3o Campos aparecem com 15,6% cada, seguidos por Anderson Ferreira (PL) (12,1%) e Gilson Machado (Podemos) (10%).<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">A pesquisa ouviu 2.010 eleitores entre os dias 24 e 30 de mar\u00e7o, com margem de erro de 2,5 pontos percentuais e n\u00edvel de confian\u00e7a de 95%. O registro no TSE \u00e9 BR-04215\/2026.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Para Adriano Oliveira, a diferen\u00e7a entre os levantamentos est\u00e1 ligada ao n\u00famero de candidatos apresentados, o que dilui os percentuais.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">\u201cA pesquisa de inten\u00e7\u00e3o de voto diz pouco. Quando voc\u00ea l\u00ea a pesquisa acompanhada dos sentimentos do eleitor, ela fica mais clara.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">J\u00e1 a pesquisa doInstituto Real Time Big Data, divulgada nesta quarta-feira (8), mostra Jo\u00e3o Campos em vantagem de votos, com possibilidade de vit\u00f3ria no primeiro turno.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">No cen\u00e1rio estimulado, Campos aparece com 50% das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de votos, enquanto principal advers\u00e1ria dele, a governadora Raquel Lyra (PSD), apresenta 33%. Juntos, os dois pr\u00e9- candidatos somam 83% dos votos computados pela pesquisa.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><strong><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Disputa deve ser definida por fatores locais<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">A elei\u00e7\u00e3o em Pernambuco, segundo a an\u00e1lise, tende a ser marcada por uma l\u00f3gica estadual, com menor influ\u00eancia da polariza\u00e7\u00e3o nacional. \u201cEssa elei\u00e7\u00e3o ser\u00e1 estadualizada. O eleitor est\u00e1 rejeitando a polariza\u00e7\u00e3o e vai olhar para o desempenho do governo.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Nesse contexto, a associa\u00e7\u00e3o direta ao presidente Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (PT) pode ter impacto limitado, especialmente fora da Regi\u00e3o Metropolitana.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">A indefini\u00e7\u00e3o sobre o apoio de Lula em Pernambuco tamb\u00e9m \u00e9 vista como estrat\u00e9gia. \u201c\u00c9 muito melhor para Lula ter uma governadora reeleita pedindo voto para ele no segundo turno do que uma governadora neutra.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">A leitura \u00e9 de que o presidente deve evitar se posicionar diretamente em estados onde n\u00e3o h\u00e1 candidatura do PT.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><strong><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Interior e estrutura podem ser decisivos<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Al\u00e9m da aprova\u00e7\u00e3o, a governadora conta com vantagem estrutural, com base aliada na Assembleia Legislativa e apoio de lideran\u00e7as regionais, como o grupo dos Coelho, tendo o ex-prefeito e presidente do Uni\u00e3o Brasil em Pernambuco, Miguel Coelho, como pr\u00e9-candidato ao Senado e cotado para a chapa majorit\u00e1ria. \u201cCandidato \u00e0 reelei\u00e7\u00e3o chega com obra, com entrega e com estrutura. Isso faz diferen\u00e7a.\u201d<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">J\u00e1 Jo\u00e3o Campos mant\u00e9m for\u00e7a na Regi\u00e3o Metropolitana, mas enfrenta o desafio de ampliar sua presen\u00e7a no interior, considerado decisivo.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><strong><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Cen\u00e1rio segue em aberto<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">Apesar dos sinais de crescimento de Raquel Lyra, o cen\u00e1rio ainda \u00e9 indefinido. O empate t\u00e9cnico e o alto n\u00famero de indecisos indicam espa\u00e7o para mudan\u00e7as ao longo da campanha.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">\u201cDevemos nos preparar para uma elei\u00e7\u00e3o que pode terminar com pequena margem no primeiro turno\u201d, concluiu Adriano Oliveira.<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\">A disputa, portanto, tende a ser acirrada, com peso da avalia\u00e7\u00e3o da gest\u00e3o, da articula\u00e7\u00e3o pol\u00edtica e da capacidade de mobiliza\u00e7\u00e3o no interior do estado.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n<p class=\"_aupe copyable-text x15bjb6t x1n2onr6\"><span class=\"_aupe copyable-text xkrh14z\"> Jconline<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Os empates registrado na pesquisa Simplex divulgada nesta quarta-feira (08) para o Governo de Pernambuco refor\u00e7a o cen\u00e1rio de disputa equilibrada entre a governadora Raquel Lyra (PSD) e o ex-prefeito do Recife Jo\u00e3o Campos (PSB). Apesar disso, a elei\u00e7\u00e3o pode ser definida ainda no primeiro turno, segundo avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do cientista pol\u00edtico Adriano Oliveira. \u201cN\u00e3o ser\u00e1 surpresa se a governadora Raquel Lyra vier ganhar no primeiro turno\u201d, afirmou. A an\u00e1lise considera principalmente os dados do Instituto Simplex, que mostram empate t\u00e9cnico no cen\u00e1rio estimulado: Raquel Lyra aparece com 42,6% das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto, enquanto Jo\u00e3o Campos tem 42,3%. A margem de erro \u00e9 de 3 pontos percentuais. No cen\u00e1rio com menos candidatos, a governadora soma 44,8% contra 43,2% do advers\u00e1rio. J\u00e1&hellip; <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":279170,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[30],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-418994","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-artigo"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>&quot;N\u00e3o ser\u00e1 surpresa uma vit\u00f3ria de Raquel Lyra no 1\u00ba turno&quot;, diz CIENTISTA POL\u00cdTICO ao avaliar pesquisas - Blog do Farn\u00e9sio<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=418994\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"&quot;N\u00e3o ser\u00e1 surpresa uma vit\u00f3ria de Raquel Lyra no 1\u00ba turno&quot;, diz CIENTISTA POL\u00cdTICO ao avaliar pesquisas - Blog do Farn\u00e9sio\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Os empates registrado na pesquisa Simplex divulgada nesta quarta-feira (08) para o Governo de Pernambuco refor\u00e7a o cen\u00e1rio de disputa equilibrada entre a governadora Raquel Lyra (PSD) e o ex-prefeito do Recife Jo\u00e3o Campos (PSB). Apesar disso, a elei\u00e7\u00e3o pode ser definida ainda no primeiro turno, segundo avalia\u00e7\u00e3o do cientista pol\u00edtico Adriano Oliveira. \u201cN\u00e3o ser\u00e1 surpresa se a governadora Raquel Lyra vier ganhar no primeiro turno\u201d, afirmou. A an\u00e1lise considera principalmente os dados do Instituto Simplex, que mostram empate t\u00e9cnico no cen\u00e1rio estimulado: Raquel Lyra aparece com 42,6% das inten\u00e7\u00f5es de voto, enquanto Jo\u00e3o Campos tem 42,3%. A margem de erro \u00e9 de 3 pontos percentuais. No cen\u00e1rio com menos candidatos, a governadora soma 44,8% contra 43,2% do advers\u00e1rio. 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