{"id":372735,"date":"2024-07-09T11:05:45","date_gmt":"2024-07-09T14:05:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735"},"modified":"2024-07-08T20:58:41","modified_gmt":"2024-07-08T23:58:41","slug":"economistas-aumentam-projecoes-para-inflacao-de-2024-apos-reajustes-da-petrobras","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735","title":{"rendered":"Economistas aumentam proje\u00e7\u00f5es para infla\u00e7\u00e3o de 2024 ap\u00f3s reajustes da Petrobras"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n
Por Leonardo Vieceli | Folhapress\u00a0 –<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\n
\n

Economistas elevaram proje\u00e7\u00f5es para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o brasileira no acumulado deste ano, ap\u00f3s a Petrobras anunciar nesta segunda-feira (8) aumentos nos pre\u00e7os da gasolina e do g\u00e1s de botij\u00e3o, o GLP. Com as revis\u00f5es para cima, as estimativas para o IPCA (\u00cdndice Nacional de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor Amplo) ficaram um pouco mais distantes do patamar de 4% nos 12 meses at\u00e9 dezembro.<\/p>\n

Conforme o an\u00fancio da Petrobras, o pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio da gasolina sobe R$ 0,20 por litro nas refinarias a partir desta ter\u00e7a (9), enquanto o aumento no valor do g\u00e1s de botij\u00e3o de 13 quilos ser\u00e1 de R$ 3,10 para as distribuidoras.<\/p>\n

Ap\u00f3s a decis\u00e3o da estatal, a Ativa Investimentos elevou sua proje\u00e7\u00e3o para o IPCA de 2024: de 4% para 4,2%. A previs\u00e3o anterior n\u00e3o contemplava a perspectiva de reajustes nos pre\u00e7os. “Estimamos que a eleva\u00e7\u00e3o chegar\u00e1 aos consumidores na segunda quinzena de julho, com primeiro impacto no IPCA fechado desse mesmo m\u00eas”, aponta relat\u00f3rio assinado por \u00c9tore Sanchez, economista-chefe da Ativa.<\/p>\n

Outra institui\u00e7\u00e3o que aumentou sua proje\u00e7\u00e3o para o \u00edndice foi a Warren Investimentos. Segundo Andr\u00e9a Angelo, estrategista de infla\u00e7\u00e3o da casa, a perspectiva para o IPCA deste ano saiu de 4,1% para 4,28%. O economista Andr\u00e9 Braz, do FGV Ibre (Instituto Brasileiro de Economia da Funda\u00e7\u00e3o Getulio Vargas), tamb\u00e9m revisou sua previs\u00e3o: de 4,1% para 4,2%.<\/p>\n

Segundo Braz, o impacto no IPCA tende a ser dividido entre os meses de julho (0,08 ponto percentual) e agosto (0,05 ponto percentual). O economista pondera que o cen\u00e1rio pode mudar caso a empresa promova novas mudan\u00e7as nos pre\u00e7os nas refinarias, para cima ou para baixo, at\u00e9 o final do ano.
\n“Pode ser que o real volte a se valorizar, e que isso ajude a rever para baixo os pre\u00e7os daqui a alguns meses. Ou pode ser que a situa\u00e7\u00e3o permane\u00e7a ruim, sendo agravada por um futuro aumento do petr\u00f3leo, o que pode trazer novo aumento de pre\u00e7os em 2024”, diz.
\nO pesquisador afirma que, antes do an\u00fancio da Petrobras, havia reduzido a estimativa para o IPCA, de 4,2% para 4,1%, j\u00e1 que a infla\u00e7\u00e3o da alimenta\u00e7\u00e3o havia subido menos do que o esperado. Por\u00e9m, com a alta dos combust\u00edveis nas refinarias, a perspectiva retornou para o patamar de 4,2% nesta segunda.
\nA gasolina \u00e9 o principal subitem do IPCA, entre os 377 bens e servi\u00e7os pesquisados pelo IBGE (Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica).
\nEm maio, o peso do combust\u00edvel na composi\u00e7\u00e3o do \u00edndice foi de 5,08%. Enquanto isso, o do g\u00e1s de botij\u00e3o ficou em 1,23%. Foi o 19\u00ba maior da pesquisa.
\nAl\u00e9m dos impactos diretos para o consumidor, o reajuste dos pre\u00e7os da Petrobras tamb\u00e9m pode gerar efeitos indiretos na infla\u00e7\u00e3o, lembra Braz. A gasolina \u00e9, por exemplo, um dos insumos usados na frota de ve\u00edculos de empresas e no transporte de passageiros.
\nO IPCA serve como refer\u00eancia para a meta de infla\u00e7\u00e3o perseguida pelo BC (Banco Central), cujo centro \u00e9 de 3% em 2024. A toler\u00e2ncia \u00e9 de 1,5 ponto percentual para menos ou para mais.
\nLogo, a meta ser\u00e1 cumprida se o IPCA ficar no intervalo de 1,5% (piso) a 4,5% (teto) no acumulado at\u00e9 dezembro. Por ora, apesar do aumento, as previs\u00f5es da maioria dos analistas seguem abaixo do teto.
\nAntes do an\u00fancio da Petrobras, o BC divulgou nesta segunda a nova edi\u00e7\u00e3o do boletim Focus, que traz estimativas do mercado financeiro para indicadores como o IPCA.
\nConforme o documento, a mediana das proje\u00e7\u00f5es para o \u00edndice de infla\u00e7\u00e3o subiu pela nona semana consecutiva. Passou de 4% para 4,02%.
\nAs revis\u00f5es para cima ocorreram em meio a incertezas sobre a pol\u00edtica fiscal do governo e a declara\u00e7\u00f5es do presidente Luiz In\u00e1cio Lula da Silva (PT) que contribu\u00edram para a alta do d\u00f3lar. A eleva\u00e7\u00e3o da moeda americana pressiona diferentes pre\u00e7os no Brasil.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Por Leonardo Vieceli | Folhapress\u00a0 – Economistas elevaram proje\u00e7\u00f5es para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o brasileira no acumulado deste ano, ap\u00f3s a Petrobras anunciar nesta segunda-feira (8) aumentos nos pre\u00e7os da gasolina e do g\u00e1s de botij\u00e3o, o GLP. Com as revis\u00f5es para cima, as estimativas para o IPCA (\u00cdndice Nacional de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor Amplo) ficaram um pouco mais distantes do patamar de 4% nos 12 meses at\u00e9 dezembro. Conforme o an\u00fancio da Petrobras, o pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio da gasolina sobe R$ 0,20 por litro nas refinarias a partir desta ter\u00e7a (9), enquanto o aumento no valor do g\u00e1s de botij\u00e3o de 13 quilos ser\u00e1 de R$ 3,10 para as distribuidoras. Ap\u00f3s a decis\u00e3o da estatal, a Ativa Investimentos elevou sua proje\u00e7\u00e3o para… <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":193116,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-372735","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economia"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEconomistas aumentam proje\u00e7\u00f5es para infla\u00e7\u00e3o de 2024 ap\u00f3s reajustes da Petrobras - Blog do Farn\u00e9sio<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"pt_BR\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Economistas aumentam proje\u00e7\u00f5es para infla\u00e7\u00e3o de 2024 ap\u00f3s reajustes da Petrobras - Blog do Farn\u00e9sio\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Por Leonardo Vieceli | Folhapress\u00a0 – Economistas elevaram proje\u00e7\u00f5es para a infla\u00e7\u00e3o brasileira no acumulado deste ano, ap\u00f3s a Petrobras anunciar nesta segunda-feira (8) aumentos nos pre\u00e7os da gasolina e do g\u00e1s de botij\u00e3o, o GLP. Com as revis\u00f5es para cima, as estimativas para o IPCA (\u00cdndice Nacional de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor Amplo) ficaram um pouco mais distantes do patamar de 4% nos 12 meses at\u00e9 dezembro. Conforme o an\u00fancio da Petrobras, o pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio da gasolina sobe R$ 0,20 por litro nas refinarias a partir desta ter\u00e7a (9), enquanto o aumento no valor do g\u00e1s de botij\u00e3o de 13 quilos ser\u00e1 de R$ 3,10 para as distribuidoras. Ap\u00f3s a decis\u00e3o da estatal, a Ativa Investimentos elevou sua proje\u00e7\u00e3o para…\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Blog do Farn\u00e9sio\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/BlogQuerSaberPolitica\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:author\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/?ref=tn_tnmn\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2024-07-09T14:05:45+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/blogqspChargecombustivel.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"566\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"462\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Farn\u00e9sio\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Escrito por\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Farn\u00e9sio\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. tempo de leitura\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutos\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\\\/?p=372735#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\\\/?p=372735\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Farn\u00e9sio\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/bb9b23ae3ad0609ce8df7b6c9e76824d\"},\"headline\":\"Economistas aumentam proje\u00e7\u00f5es para infla\u00e7\u00e3o de 2024 ap\u00f3s reajustes da Petrobras\",\"datePublished\":\"2024-07-09T14:05:45+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\\\/?p=372735\"},\"wordCount\":680,\"commentCount\":0,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\\\/?p=372735#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/2018\\\/04\\\/blogqspChargecombustivel.jpg\",\"articleSection\":[\"Economia\"],\"inLanguage\":\"pt-BR\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"CommentAction\",\"name\":\"Comment\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\\\/?p=372735#respond\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\\\/?p=372735\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\\\/?p=372735\",\"name\":\"Economistas aumentam proje\u00e7\u00f5es para infla\u00e7\u00e3o de 2024 ap\u00f3s reajustes da Petrobras - 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Com as revis\u00f5es para cima, as estimativas para o IPCA (\u00cdndice Nacional de Pre\u00e7os ao Consumidor Amplo) ficaram um pouco mais distantes do patamar de 4% nos 12 meses at\u00e9 dezembro. Conforme o an\u00fancio da Petrobras, o pre\u00e7o m\u00e9dio da gasolina sobe R$ 0,20 por litro nas refinarias a partir desta ter\u00e7a (9), enquanto o aumento no valor do g\u00e1s de botij\u00e3o de 13 quilos ser\u00e1 de R$ 3,10 para as distribuidoras. Ap\u00f3s a decis\u00e3o da estatal, a Ativa Investimentos elevou sua proje\u00e7\u00e3o para…","og_url":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735","og_site_name":"Blog do Farn\u00e9sio","article_publisher":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/BlogQuerSaberPolitica\/","article_author":"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/?ref=tn_tnmn","article_published_time":"2024-07-09T14:05:45+00:00","og_image":[{"width":566,"height":462,"url":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/blogqspChargecombustivel.jpg","type":"image\/jpeg"}],"author":"Farn\u00e9sio","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_misc":{"Escrito por":"Farn\u00e9sio","Est. tempo de leitura":"4 minutos"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"Article","@id":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735#article","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735"},"author":{"name":"Farn\u00e9sio","@id":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/#\/schema\/person\/bb9b23ae3ad0609ce8df7b6c9e76824d"},"headline":"Economistas aumentam proje\u00e7\u00f5es para infla\u00e7\u00e3o de 2024 ap\u00f3s reajustes da Petrobras","datePublished":"2024-07-09T14:05:45+00:00","mainEntityOfPage":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735"},"wordCount":680,"commentCount":0,"publisher":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/#organization"},"image":{"@id":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735#primaryimage"},"thumbnailUrl":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/wp-content\/uploads\/2018\/04\/blogqspChargecombustivel.jpg","articleSection":["Economia"],"inLanguage":"pt-BR","potentialAction":[{"@type":"CommentAction","name":"Comment","target":["https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735#respond"]}]},{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735","url":"https:\/\/blogdofarnesio.com.br\/?p=372735","name":"Economistas aumentam proje\u00e7\u00f5es para infla\u00e7\u00e3o de 2024 ap\u00f3s reajustes da Petrobras - 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